Ominous Looking Picture in Healthcare and Education Jobs

Month in, month out, recession or not, there has been a strong uptick in the number of healthcare and education jobs. Until now. A few charts will show what I mean.

Education and Health Services Employment 1990-Present



It's hard to tell much from that picture other than things look very rosy. Let's have a look in percentage terms.

Education and Health Services Employment Percent Change



Now let's hone in on the past year.

Education and Health Services Employment 2013-Present



No Growth!

Education and Health Services Employment Monthly Change in Thousands



The chart appears as if there were several instances of negative numbers in 2003, but a download of the actual data shows the only other negative number in the entire series of data dating back to 1990 occurred in 2003-07-01.

I strongly suspect 2003 was affected by a number of teachers strikes. I could find examples in the Chicago area and in Washington State. I bet there were others. Here is a link regarding Washington: School Board Sues to End Teacher Strike.

Month-to-Month Table (in Thousands)

Date	Change From Previous Month
1990-01-01	#N/A
1990-02-01	36.3
1990-03-01	41.9
1990-04-01	32.6
1990-05-01	37.4
1990-06-01	40.1
1990-07-01	32.5
1990-08-01	34.3
1990-09-01	32.6
1990-10-01	31.7
1990-11-01	28.6
1990-12-01	35.0
1991-01-01	44.6
1991-02-01	30.6
1991-03-01	32.9
1991-04-01	34.0
1991-05-01	20.5
1991-06-01	45.6
1991-07-01	28.8
1991-08-01	39.7
1991-09-01	32.9
1991-10-01	29.8
1991-11-01	25.3
1991-12-01	37.0
1992-01-01	31.7
1992-02-01	21.2
1992-03-01	20.3
1992-04-01	22.4
1992-05-01	23.5
1992-06-01	25.2
1992-07-01	26.6
1992-08-01	16.7
1992-09-01	20.8
1992-10-01	30.4
1992-11-01	33.1
1992-12-01	23.7
1993-01-01	25.8
1993-02-01	26.4
1993-03-01	14.9
1993-04-01	30.2
1993-05-01	33.7
1993-06-01	23.9
1993-07-01	20.0
1993-08-01	23.2
1993-09-01	31.0
1993-10-01	22.5
1993-11-01	16.1
1993-12-01	16.1
1994-01-01	21.7
1994-02-01	15.7
1994-03-01	33.2
1994-04-01	27.8
1994-05-01	21.1
1994-06-01	21.4
1994-07-01	29.0
1994-08-01	25.6
1994-09-01	20.0
1994-10-01	20.2
1994-11-01	17.4
1994-12-01	26.4
1995-01-01	20.4
1995-02-01	29.6
1995-03-01	27.3
1995-04-01	17.9
1995-05-01	13.7
1995-06-01	29.7
1995-07-01	21.5
1995-08-01	28.4
1995-09-01	24.6
1995-10-01	20.1
1995-11-01	28.3
1995-12-01	26.5
1996-01-01	3.7
1996-02-01	39.4
1996-03-01	29.2
1996-04-01	21.5
1996-05-01	25.5
1996-06-01	23.9
1996-07-01	21.0
1996-08-01	18.7
1996-09-01	22.7
1996-10-01	24.1
1996-11-01	25.9
1996-12-01	18.3
1997-01-01	29.3
1997-02-01	17.8
1997-03-01	21.9
1997-04-01	29.1
1997-05-01	26.1
1997-06-01	7.5
1997-07-01	24.7
1997-08-01	12.6
1997-09-01	15.7
1997-10-01	20.8
1997-11-01	16.7
1997-12-01	26.4
1998-01-01	4.4
1998-02-01	10.4
1998-03-01	11.4
1998-04-01	12.6
1998-05-01	19.4
1998-06-01	12.4
1998-07-01	6.7
1998-08-01	12.2
1998-09-01	18.7
1998-10-01	15.1
1998-11-01	10.9
1998-12-01	10.2
1999-01-01	3.4
1999-02-01	24.4
1999-03-01	14.2
1999-04-01	19.7
1999-05-01	5.4
1999-06-01	9.5
1999-07-01	11.1
1999-08-01	13.0
1999-09-01	5.4
1999-10-01	12.9
1999-11-01	13.8
1999-12-01	11.7
2000-01-01	13.1
2000-02-01	12.0
2000-03-01	10.7
2000-04-01	8.9
2000-05-01	15.0
2000-06-01	19.5
2000-07-01	28.0
2000-08-01	22.1
2000-09-01	25.0
2000-10-01	17.7
2000-11-01	18.4
2000-12-01	30.3
2001-01-01	36.8
2001-02-01	33.7
2001-03-01	28.0
2001-04-01	27.4
2001-05-01	29.7
2001-06-01	41.3
2001-07-01	38.3
2001-08-01	32.5
2001-09-01	25.2
2001-10-01	28.5
2001-11-01	27.1
2001-12-01	33.1
2002-01-01	31.4
2002-02-01	30.1
2002-03-01	27.8
2002-04-01	24.5
2002-05-01	17.9
2002-06-01	21.2
2002-07-01	20.5
2002-08-01	35.3
2002-09-01	45.5
2002-10-01	28.8
2002-11-01	28.6
2002-12-01	13.2
2003-01-01	25.4
2003-02-01	22.9
2003-03-01	21.9
2003-04-01	30.5
2003-05-01	23.2
2003-06-01	19.9
2003-07-01	-9.0
2003-08-01	18.2
2003-09-01	13.7
2003-10-01	23.0
2003-11-01	18.7
2003-12-01	27.0
2004-01-01	17.5
2004-02-01	8.8
2004-03-01	36.6
2004-04-01	30.2
2004-05-01	25.2
2004-06-01	15.7
2004-07-01	15.6
2004-08-01	18.8
2004-09-01	15.7
2004-10-01	31.9
2004-11-01	17.3
2004-12-01	20.0
2005-01-01	8.5
2005-02-01	24.2
2005-03-01	15.7
2005-04-01	25.5
2005-05-01	29.4
2005-06-01	30.2
2005-07-01	35.5
2005-08-01	23.0
2005-09-01	21.9
2005-10-01	10.9
2005-11-01	26.1
2005-12-01	13.6
2006-01-01	32.2
2006-02-01	22.9
2006-03-01	30.3
2006-04-01	15.0
2006-05-01	23.0
2006-06-01	22.2
2006-07-01	29.2
2006-08-01	21.5
2006-09-01	33.0
2006-10-01	24.5
2006-11-01	27.2
2006-12-01	38.8
2007-01-01	22.9
2007-02-01	30.4
2007-03-01	26.1
2007-04-01	36.8
2007-05-01	26.0
2007-06-01	38.1
2007-07-01	26.8
2007-08-01	34.8
2007-09-01	32.9
2007-10-01	28.7
2007-11-01	17.0
2007-12-01	27.2
2008-01-01	35.1
2008-02-01	28.0
2008-03-01	30.6
2008-04-01	35.6
2008-05-01	26.2
2008-06-01	24.9
2008-07-01	31.1
2008-08-01	22.2
2008-09-01	13.4
2008-10-01	19.2
2008-11-01	27.8
2008-12-01	23.3
2009-01-01	13.6
2009-02-01	24.3
2009-03-01	7.1
2009-04-01	10.6
2009-05-01	32.3
2009-06-01	25.8
2009-07-01	17.6
2009-08-01	20.1
2009-09-01	21.4
2009-10-01	25.3
2009-11-01	19.5
2009-12-01	16.6
2010-01-01	15.8
2010-02-01	16.0
2010-03-01	32.8
2010-04-01	11.9
2010-05-01	15.6
2010-06-01	17.4
2010-07-01	18.8
2010-08-01	24.1
2010-09-01	8.5
2010-10-01	27.1
2010-11-01	26.3
2010-12-01	26.8
2011-01-01	2.8
2011-02-01	17.0
2011-03-01	28.7
2011-04-01	30.0
2011-05-01	13.8
2011-06-01	29.0
2011-07-01	25.5
2011-08-01	27.4
2011-09-01	31.1
2011-10-01	16.6
2011-11-01	6.5
2011-12-01	8.4
2012-01-01	28.6
2012-02-01	32.0
2012-03-01	24.0
2012-04-01	12.9
2012-05-01	31.2
2012-06-01	9.1
2012-07-01	14.4
2012-08-01	10.7
2012-09-01	33.8
2012-10-01	26.4
2012-11-01	17.6
2012-12-01	27.5
2013-01-01	5.3
2013-02-01	23.1
2013-03-01	11.1
2013-04-01	29.7
2013-05-01	12.9
2013-06-01	17.1
2013-07-01	4.1
2013-08-01	43.2
2013-09-01	2.7
2013-10-01	22.8
2013-11-01	29.6
2013-12-01	2.4
2014-01-01	-0.4

Back-to-back poor months, the last one negative, do not make a trend. Looking ahead, if this is a start of a new trend, it rates to be very ominous for the employment picture.

For more on the latest jobs data, please see Nonfarm Payrolls +113,000, Median Bloomberg Estimate 180,000; Huge March 2013 Employment Revision

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Boom Bust Video with Mish: Why Is the Sky Green?

This week I had the pleasure of being back on RT, this time with Erin Ade.



Link if video does not play: Mike Shedlock and Jim Bruce on US, Fed & minimum wage.

The title of this post "Why is the Sky Green?" comes from a comment in the video that I made regarding my February 3, article Why are Taxpayers Subsidizing Big Mac Buyers?

My favorite topic we discussed was actually deflation and economic prospects in Europe. The producers decided to split things in half, and the second part will come later. I will post it when it arrives

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Nonfarm Payrolls +113,000, Median Bloomberg Estimate 180,000; Huge March 2013 Employment Revision

Initial Reaction

Big Miss: Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 113,000. The Median Bloomberg estimate was +180,000. December was revised up a tiny bit from 74,000 to 75,000. Beneath the surface, things actually look better for a change. The household survey shows a gain of employment of 638,000. That said, revisions were in play.

Huge March 2013 Revision

Nonfarm employment for March 2013 was revised up by 369,000 (347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis). The benchmark revision incorporates a large non-economic change that resulted from a reclassification of 466,000 jobs from private households (out of scope by CES definition) to services for the elderly and disabled (in scope for CES).

Blaming the Weather

Once again economists were caught totally unaware by bad weather.

MarketWatch reports "The latest report may have been influenced by other unusual factors that render it less reliable as a bellwether of labor-market trends: extremely cold and snowy weather and the government’s annual “benchmark” update on how many jobs were created in the past year. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a gain of 190,000 jobs."

Apparently economists did not realize it has been cold and snowy. Alternatively, they predicted 180,000 to 190,000 jobs even though they knew it was cold and snowy. Which is it?

December BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

• Nonfarm Payroll: +113,000 - Establishment Survey
• Employment: +638,000 - Household Survey
• Unemployment: -115,000 - Household Survey
• Involuntary Part-Time Work: -514,000 - Household Survey
• Voluntary Part-Time Work: +434,000 - Household Survey
• Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 to 6.6% - Household Survey
• U-6 unemployment: -0.4 to 12.7% - Household Survey
• Civilian Non-institutional Population: +170,000
• Civilian Labor Force: +523,000 - Household Survey
• Not in Labor Force: -355,000 - Household Survey
• Participation Rate: -0.2 at 62.8 - Household Survey

Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate

• The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
• In the past year the population rose by 2,252,000.
• In the last year the labor force fell by 239,000.
• In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,2533,000
• Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,840,000 (an average of 153,33 a month)

The population rose by over 2 million, but the labor force fell by over a quarter-million. People dropping out of the work force accounts for much of the declining unemployment rate.

January 2014 Employment Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) January 2014 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted


Employment History Since January 2003



click on chart for sharper image

Change from Previous Month by Job Type



Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees was flat at 34.4 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.2 hours.

Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.06 to $20.39. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.06 to $20.17.

Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model

Starting January, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I keep this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 6.6%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 12.7%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
5. Disability and disability fraud

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 9%.

Synopsis

On the surface this was a second bad jobs report. Beneath the surface, things looked much better. However, the improvement in household employment dates back to a massive upward revision from March 2013 of 369,000. That revision is not indicative of the current state of hiring patterns.

 Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Rise of Eurosceptics in Netherlands Prompts Serious Discussion of "Nexit"

Eurozone exit talk first started with "Grexit" (Greece exit). It progressed to "Spexit" (Spain exit), and now talk centers on "Nexit" (Netherlands exit).

Before anyone else claims the names, let me propose "Frexit" and "Fexit" (France exit) as well as "Sexit" a sexy sounding alternative for Spain Exit.

So far the "exit" scorecard remains on zero, but eventual exits are likely. No one can be assured of the timing or catalyst, but eurosceptcism is on the rise in a huge way.

Nexit?

In the Netherlands, opposition leader Geert Wilders outlines case for a Dutch ‘Nexit’ from the EU.

Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) that is leading in Dutch polls for May’s European parliament elections, presented a study on Thursday that claims the Netherlands would be better off if it left the EU and he urged voters to support his call for “Nexit”.

The study, by the consultancy Capital Economics, claims the Dutch economy would quickly emerge from its sluggishness to brisk growth, generating billions of euros – or new Dutch guilders – in fresh revenues for debt-laden households.

Mr Wilders is one of a handful of populist leaders in the EU – including Marine Le Pen in France; Nigel Farage in Britain and Alexis Tsipras in Greece – whose sharp anti-Brussels rhetoric has helped push them into either first or second place in public opinion polls ahead of May’s Europe-wide vote.

The Netherlands is one of the founding members of the EU, and has long been seen as a core supporter of a more integrated Europe. Yet public opinion polls reveal growing support across the country for a renegotiation of powers with Brussels over a number of policy areas, including access to domestic welfare for other EU citizens.

Mark Rutte, Dutch prime minister, in June presented a list of 54 competencies that should remain with national governments rather than be given to the EU, a plan many in Brussels have viewed as the Liberal premier’s attempt to fend off the challenge from Mr Wilders.

“Nexit means that we no longer have to pay billions to Brussels and weak southern European countries,” added Mr Wilders. “We can save billions by liberating ourselves from EU regulations. We can end the mass immigration and stop paying welfare checks to, for instance, Romanians and Bulgarians.”

Mark Pragnell, one of the authors of Capital Economics’ report, said the Netherlands would be significantly richer if it left the EU and the single currency, despite a short period of volatility.

Capital Economics, a London-based economic research firm, has become a leading voice for eurozone break-up, last year winning a £250,000 prize from a British think-tank for its proposal on how to end the single currency.

What's the Point?

Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman asks What’s the point of calling for a Nexit?

Wilders is after the protest vote, and he will get it – just like Marine Le Pen’s National Front and the UK Independence Party of Nigel Farage. All three movements have an excellent chance of topping the polls or at least upsetting the political apple cart in their respective countries.

Here lies the significance of Wilders’s call for “Nexit” – or Dutch exit from the EU. As an economic argument, it does not stand up at all: the Netherlands is so deeply integrated into the eurozone and the EU single market that Nexit makes no more sense than “Brexit” for the UK or “Grexit” for Greece.

Bias, Irony, and One Size Fits All Silliness

One can stop reading right there understanding full well the extreme bias in what Rachman wrote. Given that Rachman is a columnist and not a news reporter, bias is to be expected.

But please note the extreme irony in his statement: Nexit makes no more sense than “Brexit” for the UK.

The fact of the matter is that "Brexit" happens to make perfect sense for the UK.

There is not going to be a two-speed EU with some countries in the Eurozone and others not. One is going to be either in or out. Sitting on the fence forever won't happen. Neither French president Francois Hollande nor the UK liberals will allow that.

The moment the UK fully commits to the eurozone, all kinds of financial stupidities are bound to happen, including financial transaction taxes that are bound to cripple London. Moreover, the UK would be subject to the "one size fits Germany" interest rate policy of the EU.

A valid (albeit clearly out of context) interpretation of Rachman's statement is as follows:"Nexit makes sense, because Brexit makes perfect sense".

Addendum:

It's important not to leave the Fed out of these exit scenario discussions. I revise my copyright for "Fexit" to mean Fed Exit, while retaining use of "Frexit" for France. Of course we all know the Fed has no exit strategy other than to hold all the assets it accumulated to maturity.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ukraine Central Bank Imposes 6-Day Waiting Period on Foreign Currency Purchases; Capital Controls Hit Ukraine in Effort to Halt Money Exodus

Yet another country has gone the route of capital controls hoping to stave off an outflow of currency. Bloomberg reports Ukraine Imposes Capital Controls as President Meets Putin.

Ukraine’s central bank imposed limits on foreign-currency purchases after its interventions failed to alleviate pressure on the hryvnia, while President Viktor Yanukovych left to meet his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

The monetary authority’s measures include a waiting period of at least six working days for foreign-currency purchases by companies and curbs on individuals’ market access, according to a statement on its website late yesterday. It also moved the hryvnia’s official exchange rate, used for accounting purposes, to 8.7 per dollar from 7.99, the first change since 2012.

Ukraine’s political crisis, in its third month, is rocking the country’s currency as reserves are stretched too thin to finance a record current-account deficit. As the U.S. and the European Union discuss potential aid, Yanukovych traveled to the opening ceremony of the Sochi Olympics. He will meet the Russian president, who halted payments from a $15 billion bailout after the unrest led to the cabinet’s collapse.

Risk of Default

“The political stalemate, exacerbated by a suspension of the Russian financial aid package, increases the risk of a sovereign default later this year,” Tatiana Orlova, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London wrote in a report yesterday.

The IMF in 2010 agreed to lend $15.6 billion to Ukraine, only to freeze disbursements the following year after the government refused to raise domestic natural-gas prices to trim the budget deficit.

Reserves Shrivel

Foreign reserves probably shrank to $18.7 billion in January, the lowest since 2006, from $20.4 billion a month earlier, according to the median estimate of eight analysts polled by Bloomberg before the central bank publishes the data tomorrow. Reserves fell to $17.8 billion as of yesterday, the Interfax news service reported today, citing a person it didn’t identify.

Add Ukraine to the list of countries alleged to have been helped by the parasitic practices of the IMF. Greece and Spain are both suffering because of bailouts designed to help bank creditors, not taxpayers in countries under financial stress.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Monetarists Accuse ECB of "Dangerous Game of Chicken"; The REAL Dangerous Game

This morning, ECB president Mario Draghi Held Rates at 0.25%, while rejecting fears of deflation.

ECB president Mario Draghi said: "We have to dispense with this idea of deflation. The question is - is there deflation? The answer is no."

Eurozone inflation slowed to 0.7% in January from 0.8% in December.

In addition to holding its benchmark rate at 0.25%, the ECB also left the rate it pays on bank deposits unchanged at zero.

At a press conference to explain the ECB's latest decision, Mr Draghi said: "There is going to be a low level of inflation for a protracted period of time, but deflation? No.

"The modest recovery is showing encouraging signs. The demand side is getting stronger, not weaker. We have to treat the recovery with extreme caution. It is very fragile. It is starting from very low levels but it is proceeding."

"Dangerous Game of Chicken"

It did not take long for monetarists to respond. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard quickly whined "Insular ECB is playing dangerous game of chicken with deflationary world forces".

The US and China are withdrawing stimulus on purpose. The eurozone is doing so by accident, letting market forces drain liquidity from the financial system for month after month.

The balance sheet of the European Central Bank has fallen by €553bn over the past year as banks repay money that they no longer want, either because ECB funds are too costly in a near-deflationary world or because lenders are being compelled by regulators to shrink their books.

This is "passive tightening" or "endogenous tapering". The ECB balance sheet has plummeted to 23pc of eurozone GDP from a peak of 32pc in July 2012.

Hardliners will be delighted to learn that we now have synchronized G3 global tightening at last, further compounded by enforced tightening in Brazil, India, Turkey, South Africa and a string of emerging market states trying to defend their currencies. At least two-thirds of the global economy is turning down the liquidity spigot.

Retail sales fell 1.6pc in December, the biggest drop for two-and-a-half years. The unemployment rate has stabilised at 12pc, but only because so many people have dropped off the rolls or fled abroad. Italy has lost a further 425,000 jobs over the past year.

Euroland is sliding further into Japanese deflation trap every month, whatever they claim in Frankfurt. Passive tightening has caused private sector loans to fall by €155bn over the past quarter. "The ECB's insistence on waiting for more evidence of deflation is a dangerous gamble. Delays are costly, and risk allowing pathologies to fester," said Ashoka Mody, until recently the International Monetary Fund's Troika firefighter in Ireland and now a contributor to Bruegel.

"The ECB should be picking up the baton of quantitative easing from the Fed instead of sitting on its hands. They have presided over tight monetary policy for so long that they have let an intense deflation risk take hold," said Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS.

Peter Bofinger, one of Germany's five "Wise Men" and a critic of the Bundesbank foot-dragging, said the ECB should launch "far-reaching bond purchases" immediately to head off the danger of deflation, deeming any other measure to be a drop in the bucket at this stage.

The ECB's tight policy has led to the surreal situation where the world's weakest economy - barely out of a deep recession - has the strongest currency. This dynamic is all too familiar to anybody who remembers what happened to Japan. "The greatest danger for the eurozone recovery is a further rise in the euro. They must avoid a rise to $1.40 at all costs," said Mr Bofinger.

So Much Nonsense From So Many People

Seldom do you find so much nonsense, from so many people, all in one place.

The notion of passive tightening is ridiculous. Retail sales did not decline because of passive tightening. Banks refusal to lend is not passive tightening.

Banks returned money to the ECB for one of two reasons:

1. Banks are capital impaired and cannot lend
2. Banks have no creditworthy borrowers who want loans

Yes, it is that simple. So how the hell will QE fix that? The answer should be obvious: it won't and it can't.

The second ridiculous notion in the articles is "Five Wise Men" in Germany can plan the European economy. Central planning everywhere is a miserable failure but people who don't understand history want more of it.

Supposedly, the ECB must "avoid a rise to $1.40 at all costs." And of course the US must avoid a rise in the dollar, and Japan must avoid a rise in the Yen.

Meanwhile, consumers everywhere want lower prices.

The REAL Dangerous Game

The idea that deflation needs to be fought is preposterous. everyone benefits from falling consumer prices.

The fear should not be of falling prices, but rather of bursting asset bubbles. The economic demise we are in today stems from debt-deleveraging following the bursting of asset bubbles.

And it is monetarist and Keynesian stimulus that fosters asset bubbles. We have huge asset bubbles right now. Those bubbles will burst regardless of what non-wise men want.

The sooner those bubbles burst, the better off everyone would be. Certainly we would have been better off had the housing bubble burst in 2003 rather than 2005. But monetarists like Greenspan and Bernanke wanted to keep the artificial boom going. And so they did, with extremely damaging consequences.

Pritchard now leads the way with reckless monetarist calls even though the demise we see today is from the very monetarist policies he espouses.

Prevention is Paramount

The only way to prevent asset bubbles from bursting is to not foster them in the first place.

I assure you it's far too late for that. Just like 2007, very few people even recognize bubbles even exist. And many of those who do recognize the bubbles are willingly playing the greater fool's game expecting they will be able to get out of the way when the bubbles pop.

It seldom works that way. Those riding bubbles seldom spot the top. More often, they become true believers themselves.

Final Thoughts:

It's not falling prices central banks should fear, but rather asset bubbles. The irony is central bank actions to prevent falling prices are the very thing that creates asset bubbles! When to pull the punchbowl is "real" game of chicken in play (and central bankers never get it right).

Additional Reading

For more on bubble-sponsoring mentality, please see What the Crisis Taught Us: More Bubbles! We Need Bigger Bubbles to Combat Deflation!

For discussion on what causes bubbles, please see Bubblicious Questions: What Causes Economic Bubbles? When Do Bubbles Burst? Can the Fed Prevent Bubbles?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Venezuela Gives Businesses Until Monday to Comply with "Fair Prices Act" or Face State Takeover

There will be no goods at all on shelves of any stores in Venezuela if the president follows through with his latest warning.

Via translation from El Economista, please consider Maduro Threatens to Expropriate Businesses for Violation of Fair Prices Act.

The president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, has threatened to expropriate businesses that do not comply with the new Fair Prices Act. "I have called for self-regulation of products and prices. 'll Give businesses until Monday to comply. Come Monday, if I find companies violating the Law of Fair Prices I'll take more radical measures," Maduro warned.

"Do not underestimate sectors of the bourgeoisie on whether to expropriate. You will discover on Monday we are going to apply more drastic measures," added the Venezuelan president, who was quoted by the newspaper La Truth.

Maduro also reported Tuesday the arrest of a businessman on the border with Colombia. Maduro assured the businessman will face the maximum sentence of 14 years in prison for trafficking in consumer products.

For additional details please see my January 25 post Venezuela Enacts "Law of Fair Prices" Banning Profits Over 30%, with 10-Year Imprisonment for Hoarding.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com